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一种基于风险的建模方法,用于预测燃料转移操作中人为错误引起的油污事故
Emre Akyuz1, Selcuk Cebi2, Sukru Ilke Sezer3
1Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Tuzla 34940, Istanbul, Türkiye; Industrial Data Analytics and Decision Support Systems Center, Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Baku 1001, Azerbaijan.
Marine pollution bulletin
|January 31, 2026
概括
人类错误在掩体转移期间显著地危及海洋石油污染的风险. 本研究引入了使用Dempster-Shafer (D-S),CREAM和FTA来量化这种风险的概率风险模型,帮助预防工作.
科学领域:
- 海上安全的航行.
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
- 概率风险建模概率风险建模
背景情况:
- 燃料库转移期间的石油污染对海洋生态系统和运营安全构成重大威胁.
- 人类错误被确定为这些污染事件的主要贡献因素.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个概率风险建模框架来量化人类错误引起的石油污染事故在海上运输.
- 整合Dempster-Shafer证据理论 (D-S),认知可靠性和错误分析方法 (CREAM) 和断层树分析 (FTA) 进行全面的风险评估.
主要方法:
- 该研究采用DS-CREAM方法来捕捉认识不确定性并量化人为错误的概率,考虑上下文依赖的性能塑造因素 (PSF).
- 断层树分析 (FTA) 用于对石油污染事故进行概率风险建模.
主要成果:
- 总事件 (TE) 的发生概率,定义为油污事故风险在船上的燃料库转移操作,计算为1.566E-01.
- 综合框架有效量化了与燃料库转移操作中人为错误相关的风险.
结论:
- 开发的概率风险建模框架提供了一个强大的工具,可以将石油污染风险降至最低,并在船到船的燃料库转移期间提高运营安全.
- 这些发现有助于安全和环境研究,为海事专业人员提供实用见解,并支持风险管理和石油污染预防策略.
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