通过准确确定扬模和波桑比率来提高沙子产量评估
Fahd Saeed Alakbari1, Syed Mohammad Mahmood2, Mahmoud M Abdelnaby3
1Interdisciplinary Research Center for Hydrogen Technologies and Carbon Management, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, 31261, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. fahd.akbari@kfupm.edu.sa.
准确的沙子产量预测对于石油工业至关重要. 这项研究评估了岩石特性模型,发现了一种高度可靠的方法来改进沙子风险评估.
科学领域:
- 石油工程是石油工程中的一个.
- 地质力学 地质力学
- 岩石物理 岩石物理
背景情况:
- 沙子生产在石油运营中存在重大风险,包括设备损坏和安全隐患.
- 准确预测易发生沙子的区域对于有效的沙子管理和井设计至关重要.
- 目前用于估计岩石性能的模型,如静态模量 (Es) 和静态波桑比率 (νs),显示了可变可靠性.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较评估多个文献模型来估计Es和nS.
- 评估不同输入模型对砂产量预测指数 (B,G/Cb,S/I) 和岩石类型识别的影响.
- 确定可靠的模型,以改善沙子产量预测.
主要方法:
- 使用了100个样本的数据集,测量了Es和 νs值.
- 进行了对各种基于经验和机器学习的模型进行比较评估,以对Es和 νs进行估计.
- 分析了所选模型对砂生产预测指数和岩石分类的影响.
主要成果:
- 许多现有的模型产生不一致的输出,并且经常错误地分类砂区.
- 一个评估的模型显示与测量数据几乎完全一致 (R2=0.9998,RMSE=2.78E-17).
- 这种卓越的模型显著提高了沙子生产预测在不同的预测方法的可靠性.
结论:
- 模型选择对于准确的井日志解释和沙子风险评估至关重要.
- 依赖于不良校准的模型在预测沙子产量的过程中带来了相当大的风险.
- 该研究为选择强大的模型提供了实际指导,以改善现场层面的沙子风险评估.
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