抑郁和焦虑的纵向轨迹的预测模型:系统性审查
Sophie J Fairweather1, Holly Fraser2, Natalie Lam3
1Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK; Centre for Academic Mental Health, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Journal of affective disorders
|February 1, 2026
概括
预测未来的抑郁和焦虑轨迹对于早期干预至关重要. 目前的模型往往缺乏稳定性和验证性,特别是对于年轻人来说,强调需要改进的预测工具.
科学领域:
- 心理健康研究 心理健康研究
- 纵向研究是指长度研究.
- 预测建模的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 对非典型的健康轨迹的早期干预至关重要.
- 对预测纵向抑郁和/或焦虑的模型进行了系统审查.
- 专注于确定心理健康结果的强有力的预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 对预测纵向抑郁和/或焦虑轨迹的模型的现有文献进行系统审查.
- 评估当前预测模型的质量和适用性.
- 为未来的模型开发确定研究中的差距.
主要方法:
- 在MEDLINE,Embase和APA PsycINFO数据库中搜索到2025年1月31日.
- 包括3-65岁个体的基于人口的研究.
- 使用预测模型的偏差风险评估工具 (PROBAST-AI) 评估偏差风险.
主要成果:
- 包括九项研究,主要集中在成人抑郁症;只有一个包括焦虑轨迹.
- 确定了常见的轨迹:慢性高,稳定低,增加和改善.
- 预测因素差异很大 (3-152);家庭精神病史是常见的,但并不总是关键.
- 偏差的总体风险很高;没有外部验证或临床实用性评估.
- 具有更多预测因素的模型并不总是表现更好.
结论:
- 对于强大的,经过验证的模型来预测未来的抑郁和焦虑风险,存在重大需求.
- 重点是为年轻人开发模型,以便及时进行早期干预.
- 目前的模型需要改进验证和临床实用性评估.
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