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如何好的足够好吗? 适应性HTA的模拟研究
Jamaica Roanne V Briones1, Peter Baker2, Wanrudee Isaranuwatchai3
1Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
概括
适应性医疗技术评估 (aHTA) 的不确定性影响了退款决定. 当成本效益比率明确,可变性低,风险适度时,aHTA方法是合适的.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 卫生技术评估 卫生技术评估
- 决策分析 决策分析
背景情况:
- 适应性医疗技术评估 (aHTA) 涉及评估医疗保健干预措施.
- 在HTA中的不确定性可能会影响至关重要的退款决定.
- 了解导致这种不确定性的因素对于准确的评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估HTA中不确定性对退款决定的影响.
- 确定导致aHTA不确定性的关键因素.
- 量化与错误的偿还决定相关的财务风险.
主要方法:
- 一种基于模拟的方法产生了HTA增量成本效益比率 (ICER) 的分布.
- 这些ICER被调整以考虑货币,通货膨胀和技术价格.
- 不确定性是通过使用支付意愿 (WTP) 门和泰国ICER参考来估计错误退款决定的概率来量化.
主要成果:
- 当aHTA的ICER远远低于WTP值时,错误决策的可能性会降低.
- 已公布的ICER的低变化,特别是使用类似的方法,增加了信心.
- 技术价格调整降低了波动性;适度的疾病负担和较低的成本与较小的财务风险相关.
结论:
- 当ICER明显高于或低于WTP值时,aHTA方法是合适的.
- 在已公布的ICER中变化很低,这增加了对aHTA发现的信心.
- 适度的疾病负担和财务风险是适合HTA的有利条件.
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