从意图到行动:通过公民教育了解各国青年选举参与情况
Marlen Holtmann1,2, Sabine Meinck3, Andrés Sandoval Hernandez4
1IPN-Leibniz Institute for Science and Mathematics Education, Kiel, Germany.
Developmental science
|February 1, 2026
概括
青少年的投票意图预测了未来的选举参与. 政治兴趣,公民知识和自我效能是关键驱动因素,为公民教育政策提供目标,以促进年轻人的参与.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 公民教育 公民教育
- 青年政治参与 青年政治参与
背景情况:
- 年轻人选举参与率下降对民主合法性构成威胁.
- 早期撤离的跨国指标有限.
- 了解未来投票行为的预测因素至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估八年级学生的投票意图是否预测了他们的队列以后的选举参与.
- 确定影响这些意图的个人层面因素,控制国家特征.
主要方法:
- 利用IEA国际公民和公民教育研究 (ICCS) 的数据,跨越三个周期 (2009年,2016年,2022年).
- 将学生的投票意图与首次全国大选的官方投票率进行了调整.
- 在大量学生样本 (N ≈ 316,000) 上使用固定效应模型来控制国家混.
主要成果:
- 在八年级的"可能的未来选民"和实际的队列投票率之间存在温和而显著的联系.
- 政治兴趣是投票意图的最强有力的预测因素,其次是公民知识,自我效能和信任.
- 一旦考虑心理因素,学生的背景特征并不是显著的预测因素.
结论:
- 青少年的投票意图是未来选举参与的有效预警指标.
- 公民教育政策可以有效地针对兴趣,知识和自我效能等心理因素,以提高年轻人的参与度.
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