在气候变化下,极端的高温和开花干旱可能威胁到全球小麦产量
Nimai Senapati1, Nigel G Halford1, Malcolm J Hawkesford1
1Sustainable Soils and Crops, Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ UK.
概括
在开花期间的极端高温和干旱威胁到全球小麦产量. 虽然干旱的影响可能会减少,但热应激会显著增加作物损失,危及粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端天气事件,影响了全球粮食安全.
- 农作物开花阶段的极端高温和干旱极大地影响了产量,尤其是小麦.
研究的目的:
- 评估在开花期间极端温度和干旱对全球小麦产量的未来影响.
- 使用CMIP6数据,在不同的气候变化场景下预测这些影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了最先进的Sirius小麦模型.
- 采用了来自合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的气候预测.
- 专注于关键的开花时期的短期,高影响力的事件.
主要成果:
- 目前,极端干旱导致的小麦产量损失大于极端高温.
- 全球干旱产量损失预计将减少9% (2050) 和18% (2090).
- 预计由于热应激而导致的全球产量损失将大幅增加:32% (2050) 和77% (2090).
结论:
- 在气候变化下,在开花期间的热压力对全球小麦生产构成越来越大的威胁.
- 小麦对气候变化的脆弱性正在增加,需要适应策略.
- 开发新的小麦品种,能够在开花期间耐受热和干旱,对于未来的粮食安全至关重要.
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