不确定性对全球资源可用性估计的影响
Dongping Zhou1, Steve Pye1, Brunilde Verrier1,2
1UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK.
iScience
|February 2, 2026
概括
由于能源转型,全球需求正在上升. 这项研究估计有35.5万的可用性,突出了潜在的供应短缺以及对新沉积和回收的投资需求.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 资源经济学 资源经济学
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
背景情况:
- 全球能源转型需要增加,这是电池的关键元素.
- 能源安全问题和脱碳目标正在推动的前所未有的需求.
- 关于未来供应的不确定性,以满足不断增长的需求,需要全面评估.
研究的目的:
- 在不确定性条件下评估长期的全球可用性.
- 构建一个全球自下而上的存款数据库,并生成累计可用性曲线 (CAC).
- 为了将预计的供应与国际能源署 (IEA) 的需求情景进行比较.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个六步方法,集成蒙特卡洛和枯竭曲线分析.
- 为资源建立了一个全面的全球存储数据库.
- 估计的可用性和相关的生产成本,以每碳酸等效 (LCE) 的美元计算.
主要成果:
- 估计共有35.5万的可用,成本从1,194美元到31,590美元/LCE (2023年).
- 确定目前的供应依赖于低成本的澳大利亚矿石,未来的生产可能会转向盐水来源.
- 根据保守的需求假设,预计潜在的供应短缺以及实现雄心勃勃的气候目标的成本增加.
结论:
- 物理和技术的不确定性显著影响供应的可用性.
- 及时投资新的矿和强大的回收基础设施至关重要.
- 满足未来的需求,特别是对于雄心勃勃的气候目标,需要战略规划和投资.
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