英格兰自杀的时空趋势和社会环境决定因素 (2002-2022):基于生态人口的研究
Connor Gascoigne1, Annie Jeffery2, Ioannis Rotous3
1MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
The Lancet regional health. Europe
|February 2, 2026
概括
英格兰的自杀率在20年内没有下降. 较高的自杀风险与贫困和交通网络有关,而较低的风险与种族密度和绿色空间有关. 需要有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 过去二十年来,英格兰的自杀预防策略显示出波动的自杀率,直到2010年才开始下降,然后增加.
- 目前尚不清楚这些模式是否因当地地区而异,或者受社会环境因素的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估2002年至2022年英格兰自杀的时空趋势.
- 检查社会环境特征在自杀风险中的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用国家统计局关于自杀死亡数据 (2002-2022) 的生态研究.
- 在贝叶斯等级框架内,Hurdle Poisson模型用于评估贫困,种族密度,人口密度,光污染和交通网络对自杀风险的影响.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,英格兰的自杀风险在2002年至2022年之间没有显著变化.
- 自杀风险随着贫困,铁路密度和道路网络密度的增加而增加.
- 自杀风险随着种族密度,人口密度,光污染和绿色空间组成而降低.
结论:
- 调查结果突出了贫困和孤立程度较高的社区概况,以及获得交通网络的机会,作为自杀风险最高的地区.
- 结果可以指导未来对自杀风险驱动因素的研究,并为区域级干预和有针对性的投资提供信息.
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