预测印尼爪南海的上游动态:使用ConvLSTM和3D-CNN的深度学习方法
Dwi Rantini1,2, Rumaisa Kruba3, Yudi Haditiar4
1Data Science Technology Study Program, Department of Engineering, Faculty of Advanced Technology and Multidiscipline, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, 60115, Indonesia.
MethodsX
|February 2, 2026
概括
这项研究表明,与3D-CNN相比,ConvLSTM深度学习在监测和预测南爪海的海洋上游方面优越. 该模型准确地预测了海面温度 (SST),并与当地渔民的活动保持一致.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
背景情况:
- 海洋动态是复杂的,受到气候变化和人类活动的影响,需要有效监测海洋可持续性.
- 上游,是营养丰富的冷水上升到表面的关键过程,显著提高了海洋生产力.
- 海面温度 (SST) 是检测和研究上升现象的主要指标.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查和监测爪南海的上游现象.
- 为了比较ConvLSTM和3D-CNN深度学习模型在分析上游数据方面的有效性.
- 用现实数据验证高级模型的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 采用ConvLSTM和3D-CNN深度学习架构来建模海洋表面温度 (SST) 数据.
- 将风速,海面盐度和ENSO阶段等影响因素纳入模型.
- 与当地渔民的探险数据对比,验证了ConvLSTM的预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 在模拟上游数据方面,ConvLSTM表现出了比3D-CNN更高的性能,由较低的RMSE (0.4161比0.6095) 和MAE (0.3017比0.4259) 证明.
- ConvLSTM模型准确地捕获了SST数据中的时空依赖性,这对于理解上游动态至关重要.
- 由ConvLSTM产生的预测上升模式与渔民报告的活动有很强的一致性,证实了其实际适用性.
结论:
- ConvLSTM是一种高效的深度学习工具,用于监测和预测海洋上升现象.
- 使用ConvLSTM准确的上游预测可以显著有利于海洋资源管理和渔业.
- 这项研究突出了先进的人工智能在应对关键海洋学挑战方面的潜力.
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