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代谢综合征风险预测模型的构建和验证:基于随机抽样的横截面研究
Jiannan Zhao1, Xinhua An2, Ling Liu1
1Shijingshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in endocrinology
|February 2, 2026
概括
中国代谢综合征的新风险预测模型显示,年龄,男性性别,超重,肥胖和危险的酒精消费是关键的风险因素. 该模型有助于早期识别和针对代谢综合征的有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 代谢综合征的患病率在中国很高,需要理解和干预.
- 目前关于特定中国人群中代谢综合征风险因素的数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 调查中国代谢综合征的现状.
- 分析相关的风险因素.
- 开发预防措施的风险预测模型.
主要方法:
- 在北京3541名居民 (18-79岁) 的多阶段分层集群随机抽样.
- 面对面的调查,体检和实验室测试.
- 多变量逻辑回归和列线图模型开发,使用ROC曲线和校准进行验证.
主要成果:
- 代谢综合征的患病率为18.4%.
- 确定了独立的风险因素:年龄增长,男性性别,超重,肥胖,危险的酒精消费,婚姻/共同生活史,以及特定的职业.
- 开发的柱线图模型显示出良好的区分能力 (AUC 0.815训练,0.787验证) 和预测准确性.
结论:
- 开发了一种经过验证的柱状线图代谢综合征风险预测模型.
- 可修改的风险因素普遍存在,这表明可能需要进行干预.
- 该模型可以指导早期识别高风险个体,并为有针对性的预防策略提供信息.
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