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分区模型的实用性用于测试病原体进化和人类干预的竞争假设
Barsha Saha1, Majid Bani-Yaghoub1, Chandranath Podder2
1Division of Computing, Analytics & Mathematics, School of Science and Engineering, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO, United States.
Frontiers in public health
|February 2, 2026
概括
基于模型的假设测试 (MBHT) 揭示了COVID-19大流行期间SARS-CoV-2演变的关键驱动因素. 不同的选择压力,包括宿主内部和免疫选择,随着时间的推移塑造了病毒突变.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 分区模型对于理解传染病和评估干预措施至关重要.
- 它们在测试竞争性流行病学假设中的应用仍然未得到充分利用.
- COVID-19 流行病为推进这些方法提供了一个关键的案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 为流行病学研究引入和验证基于模型的假设测试 (MBHT) 框架.
- 使用新型建模方法调查SARS-CoV-2突变的进化动态.
- 为了确定在COVID-19大流行期间推动病毒进化的主要选择压力.
主要方法:
- 为SARS-CoV-2量身定制的隔间传播模型的开发.
- 关于病毒突变驱动因素的特定假设的制定和测试.
- 对模型稳定性,基本复制数和分叉的分析.
- 将模型与七个不同的美国COVID-19流行病峰值相匹配.
- 推断选择压力的后期概率的估计.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功捕捉了SARS-CoV-2演变的不同阶段.
- 早期的突变主要是由宿主内的短期选择驱动的.
- 随后的突变是由免疫选择 (自然和疫苗诱导) 和疫苗诱导的毒性形成的.
- 后期阶段显示病毒毒性下降和免疫选择影响病毒进化.
结论:
- 基于模型的假设测试是剖析疫情期间病原体演变的强大工具.
- 了解不同选择压力的相互作用对于预测病毒突变轨迹至关重要.
- 这种方法提供了对宿主-病原体动态的更深入的了解,并为公共卫生战略提供了信息.
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