昆虫数量的长期变化:它们的检测方法及其对夜间虫的应用
Alois Honěk1, Marek Brabec2, Stano Pekár3
1Czech Agrifood Research Center, Praha 6-Ruzyně, Czech Republic.
Environmental entomology
|February 2, 2026
概括
昆虫种群正在减少. 使用状态空间模型分析长期的蝶丰度数据 (1967-1995) 揭示了近一半研究物种的显著趋势. 至少15年的数据对于检测这些变化至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 动物学 动物学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,昆虫物种的数量正在下降.
- 检测物种丰度的变化需要长期监测数据.
- 虫种群作为环境健康的指标.
研究的目的:
- 分析物种丰富度的长期趋势.
- 评估状态空间模型在检测变化的有效性.
- 为了确定趋势检测所需的最小时间序列长度.
主要方法:
- 从1967年至1995年,利用了每年捕获的110种蝶的光圈捕获量.
- 应用状态空间模型以适应时间变化的斜率 (局部线性趋势).
- 确定了显著丰度趋势的时间和持续时间.
主要成果:
- 对于65个物种,没有检测到显著的丰度变化.
- 在29种物种中发现了显著的负面趋势,最早在17年后被发现.
- 在16种物种中发现了显著的积极趋势,最早在15年后被发现.
- 这些趋势是暂时的或在整个研究期间持续存在的.
结论:
- 状态空间建模对于检测物种丰度的长期变化是有效的.
- 至少需要15年的时间序列来检测显著的趋势.
- 该研究强调了种群的动态性和长期生态监测的重要性.
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