使用SIVRM模型在印度尼西亚 (2024-2030) 建模HBV传播动态:评估最佳控制策略,到2030年消除
Hashem S Arkok1, Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono1, Dipo Aldila2,3
1Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia.
PloS one
|February 2, 2026
概括
扩大成人乙型肝炎疫苗接种率至59%,并与目前的新生儿疫苗接种率相结合,可以显著减少印尼的疾病传播. 这一战略对于满足世界卫生组织的要求至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 乙型肝炎是一个持续的全球健康挑战.
- 世界卫生组织的目标是到2030年消除乙型肝炎.
- 了解传播动态是实现消除目标的关键.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种扩展的易受感染-接种疫苗-恢复死亡率 (SIVRM) 模型,用于印度尼西亚的乙型肝炎传播.
- 评估不同疫苗接种策略对疾病控制的影响.
- 为了在康复的个体中纳入B型肝炎病毒 (HBV) 再激活的新特性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个扩展的SIVRM模型,有14个隔间.
- 参数估计使用最小平方与BPJS健康 (2019-2023) 的数据相匹配.
- 在MATLAB 2018中进行模拟,以预测趋势和评估疫苗接种场景.
主要成果:
- 估计的HBV再激活率为0.30,表明已康复个体中存在重大风险.
- 基线基本繁殖数 ([公式:见文本]) 计算为4.39,表明目前的策略是不够的.
- 将成年人接种疫苗覆盖率提高到59%,新生儿覆盖率达到70%,可以将[公式:参见文本]降至0.90.
结论:
- 印度尼西亚目前的乙型肝炎控制策略不足以实现世卫组织的消除目标.
- 扩大成人疫苗接种计划对于降低乙型肝炎负担至关重要.
- 加强康复后的监测对于推动乙型肝炎消除工作至关重要.
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