对SCORE2-OP用于预测脆弱老年门诊患者心血管死亡率的外部验证
Charlotte M Nijskens1, Julia H I Wiersinga2, Janet L MacNeil-Vroomen1
1Department of Internal Medicine, Geriatrics Section, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Journal of the American Medical Directors Association
|February 2, 2026
概括
在没有动脉样硬化心血管疾病 (ASCVD) 病史的脆弱老年门诊患者中,SCORE2-OP工具对估计心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险充满希望. 需要进一步验证,以便在这个脆弱人群中得到更广泛的应用.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 准确的心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险评估对脆弱的老年人至关重要,平衡干预措施的益处和危害.
- SCORE2-OP工具估计了心血管疾病风险,但需要在脆弱人群中进行验证.
研究的目的:
- 评估SCORE2-OP风险预测工具在估计脆弱老年门诊患者心血管疾病死亡率方面的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用阿姆斯特丹老龄化队列 (n=1797) 进行了一项外部验证研究.
- 使用Kaplan-Meier估计,评估了五年心血管疾病死亡率.
- 校准是使用观察到预期的比率来评估的,歧视是通过哈雷尔的C指数来评估的,根据ASCVD历史和功能分层.
主要成果:
- 这项研究包括1797名脆弱的老年门诊患者 (平均年龄79岁).
- 在5年内观察到的心血管疾病死亡率为6.4%,平均计算的SCORE2-OP风险为7.9%.
- SCORE2-OP显示中等程度的歧视 (C指数总体为0.59,没有ASCVD病史的人为0.67).
结论:
- 在没有ASCVD病史的脆弱老年门诊患者中,SCORE2-OP显示了对心血管疾病死亡率的显著歧视.
- 这些发现表明,SCORE2-OP在这种特定的脆弱人群中对心血管疾病风险估计具有潜在的有用性.
- 进一步的研究可能会完善其在各种脆弱患者群体中的应用.
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