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非线性分数随机延迟建模和对简单疹病毒II型动态的计算分析
Ali Raza1,2, Mansoor Alsulami3, Marek Lampart4
1IT4Innovations, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17 listopadu 2172/15, Ostrava, 708 33, Czech Republic. ali.raza@vsb.cz.
Scientific reports
|February 2, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的数学模型,以了解简单疹病毒II型 (HSV-II) 传播. 非线性分数随机模型有助于分析HSV-II动态和控制策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 简单疹病毒II型 (HSV-II) 是一种常见的感染,引起生殖器疹,影响全球数百万人.
- 了解HSV-II传播动态对于制定有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析HSV-II传播的非线性随机分数延迟微分方程 (SFDDE) 模型.
- 通过数学建模,研究HSV-II在人类群体中传播的稳定性和动态.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分区SFDDE模型,其中包括易感,暴露,无症状,有症状,感染和康复状态.
- 分析基本性质:存在,独特性,积极性和解决方案的局限性.
- 均衡点的稳定性分析和使用下一代矩阵方法推导基本复制数,并补充灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 确定了SFDDE模型的理论特性.
- 针对无HSV和存在HSV的场景进行了本地和全球稳定性分析.
- 使用随机非标准有限差异 (NSFD) 方案进行的数值模拟验证了模型的理论发现,并证明了它的稳定性.
结论:
- 非线性分数随机建模为HSV-II传播动态提供了宝贵的见解.
- 开发的模型及其分析有助于理解和潜在地控制HSV-II的传播.
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