模拟减少不健康商品消费的经济影响:一个跨部门的输入-输出方法
Damon Morris1,2, Duncan Gillespie1,2, Megan James1
1Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research (SCHARR), School of Medicine and Population Health, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Addiction (Abingdon, England)
|February 2, 2026
概括
减少对烟草,糖果和博等不健康产品的支出可以使英国经济受益. 消费者将资金重新分配到其他商品中,抵消了潜在的负面经济影响,促进了总增值 (GVA).
科学领域:
- 公共卫生经济学 公共卫生经济学
- 宏观经济影响分析
- 健康的商业决定因素
背景情况:
- 工业界反对公共卫生政策的论点往往引用负面的经济后果.
- 这些论点忽视了消费者支出重新分配带来的潜在经济益处.
- 本研究探讨了减少消费不健康商品的宏观经济影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计英国减少酒精,烟草,糖果和博消费的宏观经济影响.
- 考虑到消费者支出从这些商品转移到替代产品的重新分配.
- 分析对产出,税收,就业,收入和总增值 (GVA) 的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发开源的健康输入-输出 (CDOHIO) 商业决定因素模型.
- 建模消费者在酒精,烟草,糖果和博方面的消费支出减少了10%.
- 假设减少的支出被完全重新分配给其他产品.
主要成果:
- 烟草,糖果和博方面的支出减少在所有六个经济指标中都产生了积极的影响.
- 糖果支出减少10%增加了389亿英 (+0.02%) 的GVA.
- 烟草支出减少10%增加了GVA的1.859亿英 (+0.09%),博增加了1250亿英 (+0.06%).
结论:
- 烟草,糖果和博支出减少的负面宏观经济影响可以通过支出重新分配来减轻.
- 这种缓解适用于非商业饮酒,但不适用于商业饮酒.
- 减少消费这些不健康商品的公共卫生政策可能具有中立到积极的经济结果.
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