全球BMI导致的膝关节骨关节炎的残疾趋势:历史分析和基于ARIMA的预测 (1990-2050年)
Li-Xue Wu1, Cheng-Wei Kang2,3
1Department of Pathology, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Medicine
|February 3, 2026
概括
由于高体重指数 (BMI) 的膝关节关节炎负担预计到2050年将近翻一番,不成比例地影响女性和老年人. 对肥胖的紧急公共卫生干预至关重要,特别是在老龄化和低资源环境中.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 膝关节关节炎 (KOA) 是50岁以上人群中导致残疾的主要原因之一.
- 高体重指数 (BMI) 是KOA发病和进展的重要危险因素.
- 全球肥胖率上升和人口老龄化需要了解与BMI相关的长期KOA趋势.
研究的目的:
- 评估当前和预计的残疾年 (YLDs) 对于因高BMI而导致的KOA.
- 分析 KOA 负担的时间趋势和区域变化.
- 为预防肥胖和管理KOA的公共卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球疾病负担2021年数据库的YLD数据.
- 专注于6个人口密集的国家,跨越不同的社会人口指数 (SDI) 级别.
- 使用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型进行时间趋势分析和未来预测 (2030,2040,2050).
主要成果:
- 由于高BMI的全球KOAYLDs从1990-2021年增加了209% (1.1到340万).
- 预测显示,到2050年,年轻人家庭数量将增加到660万个.
- 与男性相比,女性在YLDs中经历了更高的增长率;中等和低SDI的国家面临更大的增长.
结论:
- 归因于高BMI的KOA负担正在升级,预计人口老龄化,女性和资源较低的环境将大幅增加.
- 有针对性的肥胖预防和管理策略至关重要,特别是在老龄化和资源有限的环境中.
- 综合公共卫生政策和多学科干预措施对于减轻KOA未来的健康和经济影响至关重要.
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