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热带和亚热带城市的放大变暖低于2°C 气候变化
S Berk1, M M Joshi1, C M Goodess1
1Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom.
概括
城市热岛随着气候变化而加剧,特别是在亚热带和热带城市. 许多中型城市将比农村地区更快地变暖,有些城市将面临极端的温度上升.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 城市气候学 城市气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 城市热岛 (UHI) 的特点是,与农村环境相比,城市的温度更高.
- 气候变化加剧了城市变暖,给城市居民带来了风险.
- 现有的地球系统模型 (ESM) 在解决中型城市的温度变化方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 在2°C的全球变暖情景下,为104个中型城市预测陆地表面温度 (LST) 的变化.
- 评估城市地区与周边农村地区之间的不同变暖.
- 调查气候变化对热带和亚热带地区城市热量暴露的影响.
主要方法:
- 将基于过程的统计学习模型应用于地球系统模型 (ESM) 的输出.
- 专注于亚热带和热带地区的104个中型城市 (人口300万至100万).
- 在2°C的全球变暖情景下分析了陆地表面温度 (LST) 的预测变化.
主要成果:
- 预计81%的研究城市的年平均LST将比周边地区增长更快.
- 在16%的城市,主要是印度和中国,预计LST将比周边地区预测增加50-112%.
- 预计在未来的气候变化下,城市热岛的显著加剧.
结论:
- 热带和亚热带地区的中型城市因气候变化而面临放大变暖.
- 城市规划和适应战略对于减轻脆弱城市的热风险至关重要.
- 需要进一步的研究来了解和解决气候变化对城市热量暴露的具体影响.
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