人为气候变化推动了全球热应激的增加及其空间不平等
Jian Peng1, Qi Wang2,3, Zhiwei Yang4
1Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China. jianpeng@urban.pku.edu.cn.
Nature communications
|February 3, 2026
概括
由于气候变化,全球热压力正在上升,人类活动是主要的驱动因素. 这种扩大不成比例地影响低收入地区,突出了需要公平的气候适应战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 人类地理的人类地理
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,全球热压力正在增加.
- 自然与人为因素的确切贡献尚未完全理解.
- 现有研究强调了需要量化这些驱动因素及其影响.
研究的目的:
- 量化过去40年全球热应激趋势.
- 区分自然和人为强迫在观察到的热应激趋势中的作用.
- 评估不同经济群体热应激趋势的空间不平等.
主要方法:
- 利用通用热气候指数 (UTCI) 来评估热应力.
- 分析了平均热应激强度和极端热应激天的趋势.
- 对比了人为气候变化与自然气候变化对陆地面积的影响.
主要成果:
- 在过去的40年中,全球热应激明显增加.
- 52%的土地经历了平均热应激增加; 67%的土地经历了更多的极端热天.
- 人为气候变化是主要的驱动因素,与自然变化相比,影响了近两倍的土地面积.
- 低收入经济体的热应激增长率是高收入经济体的2-3倍.
结论:
- 人类引起的气候变化显著放大了全球热应激.
- 气候变化加剧了空间不平等,低收入国家承担的负担更重.
- 紧急和公平的气候变化适应措施对于应对不断升级的热应激至关重要.
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