预测儿童时期遭受家长暴力的成年人的脆弱风险:一个名ogram开发和验证研究
WeiYe Yang1, ShuLin Zhu1, WenShun Xu1
1School of Nursing, Henan Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan, 453002, China.
BMC public health
|February 3, 2026
概括
儿童接触父母暴力会增加成年人虚弱的风险. 一个预测模型将年龄,教育,自我感知健康和心理健康确定为评估这种风险的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
背景情况:
- 童年父母暴力是一个重要的负面经历.
- 这种暴露与长期的健康后果有关,包括成年时的脆弱性.
- 需要预测工具来识别有风险的个体.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于评估脆弱性风险的预测模型.
- 确定与儿童时期遭受父母暴力的成年人脆弱性相关的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中国健康与退休长度研究 (CHARLS) 的数据.
- 采用了LASSO回归,用于变量选择的10倍交叉验证.
- 开发了一个多变量回归模型,并使用校准曲线,AUC和DCA评估性能.
主要成果:
- 包括3,651名受访者在童年时遭受父母暴力的情况.
- 确定了四个预测因素:年龄,教育程度,自我感知健康和心理健康.
- 实现了高预测准确性,AUC值为0.875 (训练) 和0.892 (验证),证明了良好的校准和临床效用.
结论:
- 成功开发了一个基于名ogram的预测模型.
- 这个模型可以有效地评估成年人有童年父母暴力史的脆弱风险.
- 这些发现强调了童年不良经历对成人健康的长期影响.
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