白天的时间与巴西联邦高速公路事故有关
V C Parro1, C R C Moreno2, S Folkard3
1Núcleo de Sistemas Eletrônicos Embarcados, Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia, São Caetano do Sul, SP, Brasil.
概括
巴西的道路交通事故在凌晨2点至凌晨4点之间显著增加,夜间的风险比白天高3至3.5倍. 繁忙时间的峰值存在,但不如夜间事故风险那么严重.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 运输安全运输安全
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 全球道路交通死亡人数正在增加,低收入国家风险更高.
- 公共政策往往忽视了白天时间对道路交通事故发生的影响.
- 了解每小时的事故风险对于有针对性的安全干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计巴西24小时内每小时发生道路交通事故的概率.
- 分析一天中的时间,车辆流量和事故风险之间的关系.
- 以数据驱动的洞察力为公共政策提供信息,了解事故发生的时间.
主要方法:
- 分析原始事故数据,以一个小时的分辨率.
- 从巴西高速公路 (2015-2017) 组织和分析每小时的车辆流量数据.
- 对一天中不同时间的事故风险进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- 事故风险是,平均而言,在2点到4点之间,与7点到19点之间相比,在2点到4点之间,事故风险是3至3.5倍.
- 另外两次事故风险峰值在07:00和18:00左右被观察到,与高峰时段的交通相关.
- 夜间 (02:00-04:00) 呈现出最高的事故风险,与高收入国家的趋势一致.
结论:
- 白天的时间,特别是深夜,显著影响了巴西的道路交通事故风险.
- 繁忙时间的交通增加了事故发生的可能性,但比清晨更低的风险.
- 调查结果强调了需要将时间分析纳入道路安全战略和政策的必要性.
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