对持续的术后疼痛进行个性化预测的协议
Katherine J Holzer1, Harutyun Alaverdyan2, Ziqi Xu3,4
1Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University School of Medicine in Saint Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA kholzer@wustl.edu.
BMJ open
|February 4, 2026
概括
这项研究通过整合手术前评估和动态症状监测来开发持续性术后疼痛 (PPSP) 的个性化预测模型. 目标是改善患者的治疗结果,并减少手术后长期使用阿片类药物.
科学领域:
- 疼痛医学 医学 疼痛医学
- 手术结果研究研究.
- 数字健康数字健康
背景情况:
- 持续的术后疼痛 (PPSP) 影响高达15%的患者,影响生活质量并增加长期阿片类药物使用风险.
- 现有的PPSP预测模型缺乏动态的外科手术周围因素,限制了它们的准确性.
- 个性化预测持续的术后疼痛 (P5) 研究解决了这一差距.
研究的目的:
- 为PPSP开发个性化的多式联运预测模型.
- 整合手术前评估 (行为,心理,神经认知) 和高频症状监测.
- 为了提高预测准确度超出静态或回顾性数据.
主要方法:
- 对2500名成年手术患者进行的前性单中心队列研究.
- 收集手术前的数据,包括调查,认知和定量感官测试.
- 使用基于智能手机的生态瞬间评估 (EMA) 进行动态,高频的术后数据收集 (疼痛,情绪,药物使用).
- 采用机器学习和结构方程建模用于预测模型开发.
- 使用AUC-ROC,AUC-PR和SHAP值来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 主要结局是手术后3个月的PPSP.
- 预测模型将被开发和验证.
- 将使用SHapley添加式解释来确保模型的解释性.
结论:
- 这项P5研究旨在创建先进的,个性化的PPSP预测模型.
- 整合动态周围手术数据是提高预测准确性的关键.
- 调查结果将为减轻PPSP和相关风险的策略提供信息,例如长期使用阿片类药物.
相关概念视频
Predicting Molecular Geometry
46.0K
VSEPR Theory for Determination of Electron Pair Geometries
46.0K
Pain
1.4K
Pain serves as a critical warning signal that alerts the body to potential or actual harm. When mechanical pressure on the skin is intense, such as from a sharp pinch, the sensation transitions from touch to pain. Similarly, extreme temperatures, like a hot pot handle, convert the sensation of heat into pain. Pain can also result from overstimulation of other senses, such as blinding light, loud noise, or the intense heat from habañero peppers. This ability to sense pain is essential for...
1.4K
Prediction Intervals
3.4K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
3.4K
End Point Prediction: Gran Plot
1.2K
A Gran plot is used to predict the equivalence volume or endpoint of a potentiometric or acid-base titration without reaching the endpoint. Typically, titration data is collected as a function of the titrant's volume up to a point less than the equivalence volume and then transformed into a linear format. The straight line is extended to the x-axis, indicating the necessary titrant volume to achieve the equivalence point.
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting...
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting...
1.2K
Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predicted Value
1.4K
In healthcare diagnostics, laboratory tests play a crucial role in identifying and diagnosing a wide range of medical conditions. However, interpreting test results is not always straightforward. An abnormal test result does not always confirm the presence of a disease, just as a normal result does not guarantee its absence. To assess the reliability of these diagnostic tools, healthcare practitioners rely on two key statistical indicators: sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity is the...
Sensitivity is the...
1.4K
Predicting Reaction Outcomes
10.9K
Kinetics describes the rate and path by which a reaction occurs. In contrast, thermodynamics deals with state functions and describes the properties, behavior, and components of a system. It is not concerned with the path taken by the process and cannot address the rate at which a reaction occurs. Although it does provide information about what can happen during a reaction process, it does not describe the detailed steps of what appears on an atomic or a molecular level. On the other hand,...
10.9K


