欧亚种群的特定年龄生存率估计强调了青少年生存率的长期下降
Morgane Gicquel1, Juan C Alonso2, Lovisa Nilsson1
1Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Riddarhyttan Sweden.
Ecology and evolution
|February 5, 2026
概括
欧亚种群面临着挑战,因为幼的生存率在37年内显著下降. 为了维持人口健康,保护工作必须解决影响幼的环境压力.
科学领域:
- 鸟类学 鸟类学是一门学科.
- 野生动物生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 欧亚 (Grus grus) 在欧洲已经明显恢复,但人口密度的增加导致了人与野生动物的冲突.
- 了解人口参数对于预测人口趋势和为欧亚的保护战略提供信息至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在37年的时间内估计欧亚大陆的特定年龄生存率.
- 为了确定不同年龄段和时间的生存率的趋势.
- 通过了解影响起重机种群动态的因素,为保护管理提供信息.
主要方法:
- 分析了37年的数据 (1985-2021年) 来自5,049个未成年带带起重机和172,725个重定位.
- 估计跨年龄段 (青少年,未成年人,成年人) 和时间趋势的生存率.
- 性别之间生存率的比较.
主要成果:
- 青少年的生存率最低,其次是亚成年人,成年人呈现与年龄相关的衰退 (衰老).
- 在研究期间,青少年的生存率下降了近30%,成人生存率略有下降,成人生存率保持稳定.
- 出生时的预期寿命为10年,最大寿命为25年,男性和女性的生存率没有显著差异.
结论:
- 青少年生存率的下降是一个重大问题,可能是由息地退化,气候变化,农业和人口密度增加所驱动的.
- 未成年和未成熟的生存率的持续下降可能会威胁到欧亚大陆的起重机种群,如果没有由成年人的生存抵消.
- 需要进一步研究生殖成功和年龄特定的死亡原因,以及针对息地和气候变化影响的有针对性的干预措施.
相关概念视频
Survival Curves
719
Survival curves are graphical representations that depict the survival experience of a population over time, offering an intuitive way to track the proportion of individuals who remain event-free at each time point. These curves are widely used in fields such as medicine, public health, and reliability engineering to visualize and compare survival probabilities across different groups or conditions.
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the most common method for constructing survival curves. This...
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the most common method for constructing survival curves. This...
719
Survival Tree
433
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
433
Conservation of Declining Populations
13.4K
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
13.4K
Introduction To Survival Analysis
795
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
795
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
605
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of medical research, used to evaluate the time until an event of interest occurs, such as death, disease recurrence, or recovery. Unlike standard statistical methods, survival analysis is particularly adept at handling censored data—instances where the event has not occurred for some participants by the end of the study or remains unobserved. To address these unique challenges, specialized techniques like the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and...
605
Truncation in Survival Analysis
622
Truncation in survival analysis refers to the exclusion of individuals or events from the dataset based on specific criteria related to the time of the event. This exclusion can happen in two primary forms: left truncation and right truncation.
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are...
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are...
622


