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在气候变化场景下,使用MaxEnt模型预测Helianthus tuberosus L.在中国的当前和未来分布
Yuying Liu1, Qijun Zhao1, Yanhong Dai2
1College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|February 5, 2026
概括
气候变化将使Helianthus tuberosus (耶路撒冷桃) 的息地向中国北部转移. 西北中国被认为是该物种的关键气候避难所,指导保护和种植战略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物地理学是生物地理学.
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- (Helianthus tuberosus) 的分布很容易受到气候变化的影响.
- 预测变化对于保护和可持续农业至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模中国H. tuberosus的当前和未来的生物地理转移.
- 在气候变化情景下确定关键的环境驱动因素和未来适合息地.
主要方法:
- 利用了295个事件记录和环境变量.
- 采用了一个超参数调整的MaxEnt框架.
- 在2050年代和2090年代的四个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 中预计的分布.
主要成果:
- 主要的驱动因素:土地覆盖率 (28.7%),NDVI (23.7%),最低冬季温度 (14.7%).
- 目前适合息地集中在云南,贵州和江西.
- 预计中国西北部的息地扩张 (20.4%) 和东南部地区的收缩 (9.1%);中心位置向西北偏移197-238公里.
结论:
- 中国西北地区成为H. tuberosus的重要气候避难所.
- 结果为有针对性的保护工作和在弹性区域的战略种植提供了信息.
- 了解气候驱动的变化对于管理这种物种至关重要.
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