使用年龄结构人口普查数据估计区级生育率,评估博茨瓦纳的空间社会经济差异,2022年
Tiro Theodore Monamo1, Kannan Navaneetham1
1Department of Population Studies, University of Botswana, Private Bag, Gaborone, Botswana.
PloS one
|February 5, 2026
概括
博茨瓦纳 博茨瓦纳 博茨瓦纳 博茨瓦纳 博茨瓦纳
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 社会经济分析 社会经济分析
背景情况:
- 可靠的地方生育率估计对于博茨瓦纳的人口政策和规划至关重要.
- 虽然国家生育率下降已被记录,但区级变化及其潜在机制仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 通过直接的人口统计方法和博茨瓦纳2022年人口普查数据生成地区级生育率估计.
- 通过间接和基于模型的技术来验证这些估计.
- 分析年龄结构,儿童死亡率,社会经济地位和婚姻模式对生育差异的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了2022年博茨瓦纳人口和住房普查数据,用于15-49岁的女性.
- 计算年龄特定生育率 (ASFR) 和总生育率 (TFR) 进行直接估计.
- 将直接估计与已建立的间接和基于模型的可靠性评估方法进行比较.
主要成果:
- 国家TFR估计 (2.6-3.0) 证实了博茨瓦纳的先进生育过渡和人口普查数据的可靠性.
- 观察到显著的次国家异质性:城市地区的生育率低于替代率,农村地区的生育率更高 (3.5-4.5).
- 影响差异的因素包括教育,儿童死亡率,妇女赋权和生殖规范.
结论:
- 人口普查数据强有力的支持博茨瓦纳的分国家级生育率估计,通过多种方法验证.
- 持续的空间和社会经济差异需要针对农村和城市地区量身定制的政策干预措施.
- 解决分歧的生育趋势是博茨瓦纳人口平衡发展的关键.
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