在韩国的其他COVID-19隔离退出场景下,模拟流行病和经济权衡
Suyoung Jo1, Sung-Il Cho2, Asaph Young Chun3
1Institute of Health and Environments, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; College of Veterinary Medicine, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju, Republic of Korea.
Journal of infection and public health
|February 5, 2026
概括
对2019年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的隔离政策进行调整,需要仔细考虑时间和范围. 有证据表明,适度缩短隔离提供了比积极减少更好的经济和流行病学权衡.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 有限证据指导的早期冠状病毒疾病2019 (COVID-19) 隔离政策调整.
- 对韩国放宽隔离政策的回顾性评估为未来的流行病准备提供了洞察力.
研究的目的:
- 评估不同孤立政策放松情景对COVID-19动态和经济结果的影响.
- 为优化未来的流行病应对策略提供证据.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个年龄分层的,决定性的,疫苗接种延长的易感-暴露-感染-恢复 (SEIR) 模型.
- 模拟的反事实场景,部分 (2022) 和完全 (2023) 隔离政策变化在奥米克朗波.
- 计算经济影响,包括工资损失和成本效益比率.
主要成果:
- 在峰值之前的中度隔离缩短 (10至7天) 显示了有利的传染病和经济权衡.
- 积极减少到5天的病例显著增加,经济效益最小.
- 延迟完全解除隔离任务减少了流行病峰值,并增强了经济收益.
结论:
- 孤立政策放松的时间和程度对流行病轨迹和经济-流行病学权衡产生了重大影响.
- 基于场景的建模对于预测和告知公共卫生政策决策至关重要.
- 强大的实时监测和预测建模对于适应性流行病管理至关重要.
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