关于在不断变化的环境下对水资源承载能力的预测和调节的研究
En Li1, Bing Yan2, Junfei Yang1
1Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China.
Scientific reports
|February 5, 2026
概括
气候变化和人类活动过度负担了Yishusi河流域.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化和人类活动加剧了水循环过程,影响了水资源分配,增加了发展的不确定性.
- 区域水资源开发往往超过承载能力,造成与经济和社会结构的不匹配.
- 伊丘西河流域面临着平衡水资源利用与环境可持续性的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化和人类活动场景下,预测和调节Yishusi河流盆地的水资源承载能力.
- 分析未来的水资源状况,并制定适应性管理策略.
- 评估监管措施在减轻水资源过载方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 系统动力学模型的开发与直角实验优化相结合.
- 模拟多个未来情景,结合气候变化预测和人类活动影响.
- 分析不同发展时期和监管干预的水量和水质.
主要成果:
- 预计Yishusi河流域未来的自然排水量将在不同的场景中增加.
- 在目前的供水条件下,预计2030年,2035年和2050年将出现大量的水量和水质过载.
- 即使在实施监管措施后,所有分析的场景仍然处于严重超载状态.
结论:
- 伊舒西河流域面临着严重的水资源过载挑战,气候变化和人类活动加剧了这一挑战.
- 目前的水资源管理策略不足以防止过载,需要采取更严格的监管行动.
- 适应性管理和强有力的控制措施对于确保盆地的水安全至关重要.
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