通过地理加权后勤回归估计野火点火概率
Marco Marto1, Sarah Santos1, António Vieira2
1ALGORITMI Research Center/LASI, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal.
Journal of applied statistics
|February 6, 2026
概括
本研究使用地理加权回归来模拟葡萄牙Baião地区野火点火概率. 调查结果有助于当局确定高风险地区,以改善野火管理和资源分配.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 野火点火概率对于有效的野火管理,风险评估和资源预定至关重要.
- 葡萄牙北部,特别是Baião市,在火灾季节经常发生野火.
- 准确的点火概率数据可以大大帮助消防当局识别易受伤害的区域和打击火灾事件.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计葡萄牙Baião市的火灾点火概率.
- 开发野火风险管理和资源分配的定量模型.
- 协助地方当局确定易发生火灾的区域,以加强对野火的应对.
主要方法:
- 使用带有指数内核的地理加权回归 (GWLR) 来估计点火概率.
- 逻辑和探针链接函数与独立变量一起被利用:人口密度,距离道路的距离,高度,森林比例 (土地使用),以及LANDSAT 8的规范差异湿度指数 (NDMI).
- 使用了二进制依赖变量 (2011-2020年野火点火事件),数据通过分层采样分为训练 (70%) 和测试集.
主要成果:
- 该研究产生了有用的应用模型,用于估计野火点火概率.
- 模型性能被严格评估,使用准确度,ROC曲线AUC,精度,回忆,特异性,平衡精度和F1分数等指标.
- 开发的模型为葡萄牙的野火管理提供了宝贵的见解,补充了现有的参考模型.
结论:
- 开发的GWLR模型为预测野火点火概率提供了一个强大的框架.
- 这些模型可以整合到燃料和资源管理的定量风险管理策略中.
- 这些发现支持像Baião这样容易发生火灾的地区的消防当局加强决策.
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