在地缘政治和经济混乱期间使用零膨胀混合效应模型预测每小时的食品服务销售额
Nathan A Judd1,2, Kalliopi Mylona3, Haiming Liu4
1Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Journal of applied statistics
|February 6, 2026
概括
在食品服务行业,准确的销售预测对于资源管理至关重要. 本研究展示了统计模型如何有效地预测产品销售,即使数据有限,通过考虑各种影响因素.
科学领域:
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 食品服务业务的运作
背景情况:
- 准确的产品销售预测对于资源规划和食品服务部门的成本节省至关重要.
- 波动的需求和天气等外部因素对传统的销售预测方法构成了挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个统计模型,准确预测食品服务行业的产品总销售额.
- 以有限的数据来评估模型的表现,以及其纳入各种影响因素的能力.
主要方法:
- 使用零膨胀负二项混合效应模型.
- 纳入的因素包括不同的地点,时间和天气条件.
- 采用普通的蒙特卡洛概率近似来实现高效的模型拟合.
主要成果:
- 该模型实现了准确的销售预测,即使数据有限.
- 随机效应有效地捕获了导致数据噪声的外部因素.
- 减少固定效应估计的差异,改善了模型的解释性.
结论:
- 统计建模,特别是零膨胀负双项混合效应模型,提高了食品服务行业的预测准确性.
- 该模型能够整合多种因素,并使用有限的数据表现良好,这为运营规划带来了显著的好处.
- 这种方法为改善市场需求波动的销售预测提供了强大的解决方案.
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