在医疗保险人口中使用宫椎间盘关节置换术的趋势:2040年预测到2040年
Paul G Mastrokostas1, Leonidas E Mastrokostas, Abigail Razi
1From the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY (Paul G. Mastrokostas, Leonidas E. Mastrokostas, Inzerillo, and Monsef), and the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, NY (Paul G. Mastrokostas, Leonidas E. Mastrokostas, Abigail Razi, Bou Monsef, Afshin E. Razi, and Ng).
The Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
|February 6, 2026
概括
宫盘关节整形术 (CDA) 的使用在医疗保险受益者中迅速增加,预计到2040年将有显著增长. 这一趋势凸显了对运动维护脊柱手术选择的需求日益增加.
科学领域:
- 脊柱手术趋势 脊柱手术趋势
- 整形外科手术的使用方法.
- 医疗保健经济学 医疗保健经济学
背景情况:
- 宫椎间盘关节整形术 (CDA) 为传统的融合手术提供了一种运动保护的替代方案.
- CDA旨在减轻相邻段变性,同时保持脊柱的运动性.
- 有限的数据存在于更广泛的医疗保险人口中CDA利用趋势,包括医疗保险优势 (MA) 注册人.
研究的目的:
- 分析2009年至2022年医疗保险受益人单级和多级CDA的历史利用模式.
- 通过使用统计建模,预测未来的CDA程序量到2040年.
- 评估考虑医疗保险优势 (MA) 注册的趋势.
主要方法:
- 对医疗保险B部分国家总结数据 (2009-2022) 的回顾性分析.
- 量化单级和多级CDA程序的数量,并对MA注册进行调整.
- 应用多种预测模型 (日志线性,Poisson,负二项式,ARIMA) 以Poisson回归为最终预测.
主要成果:
- 从2009年到2022年,单一级CDA数量升了1,454% (108到1,679个案例).
- 从2015年到2022年,多层次CDA的数量增加了609.5% (从147个到1042个案例).
- 到2040年,预计年增长率为23.5% (单一级) 和24.4% (多级),分别达到96,430和63,362个程序.
结论:
- 在所有医疗保险受益者中,CDA的使用率显著增加,包括MA入学者.
- 预计到2040年,CDA程序的大幅增长将持续到2040年.
- 未来的增长需要积极的医疗保健规划,外科医生培训和支持性报销政策.
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