以可靠性评估为导向,对公园级综合能源系统的主导动态特征进行可靠性评估.
Jiangang Lu1, RuiFeng Zhao1, Qian Li1
1Electric Power Dispatch Control Center, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou, China.
PloS one
|February 6, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了公园级综合能源系统 (PIES) 的新可靠性评估,该评估考虑了供热中断对人类健康的影响. 它强调了构建热力学在整体系统可靠性中的关键作用.
科学领域:
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
- 可靠性工程可靠性工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 园区级综合能源系统 (PIES) 涉及电力,天然气,热能和建筑子系统之间的复杂,多层次的动态相互作用.
- 现有的可靠性评估往往忽略了关键的短暂反应和热供应中断对人类健康的长期影响.
研究的目的:
- 为PIES开发一种新的可靠性评估方法,该方法包含过渡动态和人类健康方面的考虑.
- 解决当前方法的局限性,包括极端场景的影响,如供热中断.
主要方法:
- 利用准稳态模拟来建模电力,天然气,供暖系统和建筑物的动态行为.
- 开发了在极端条件下对能源需求和室内温度演变的简化准稳定状态模型.
- 制定了一个新的可靠性指数,考虑区域供暖网络的热惯性和乘客温度容忍度.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法提高了PIES可靠性评估的准确性和可解释性.
- 成功弥合了在极端事件期间评估用户健康影响的差距.
- 证实建筑的热力学显著影响PIES的整体可靠性.
结论:
- 准稳态模拟方法为PIES可靠性评估提供了一个全面的框架.
- 将乘客健康和建筑物热惯性纳入考虑,可以使可靠性评估更为现实.
- 建筑的热特性是确保PIES可靠性的关键因素,特别是在不利的条件下.
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