我们能否扭曲曲线:全球生物多样性情景的趋势
Flavia Aschi1,2, Stefan C Dekker1,3, David Leclère4
1Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Science advances
|February 6, 2026
概括
实现全球生物多样性目标需要综合,跨部门的行动. 目前的情景分析往往忽略了气候变化,可能过度简化了扭转生物多样性丧失的道路.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护科学 生态与保护科学
- 环境建模环境建模
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
背景情况:
- 国际承诺旨在阻止和扭转生物多样性丧失.
- 基于模型的场景分析对于理解未来的生物多样性趋势和驱动因素至关重要.
- 之前的研究提供了洞察力,但在范围和假设上有所不同.
研究的目的:
- 区分和分析预测生物多样性丧失的场景特征与阻止或逆转生物多样性丧失的场景特征.
- 评估生物多样性场景分析中使用的假设,驱动因素,指标和模型.
- 确定当前情景中的局限性,特别是关于气候变化整合的局限性.
主要方法:
- 进行了基于模型的生物多样性场景研究的元分析.
- 基于定量结果的分类场景 (损失与停止/逆转趋势).
- 比较场景特征,包括假设,驱动因素,指标和建模方法.
主要成果:
- 预测生物多样性丧失的逆转 ("曲线曲") 的研究很少.
- 大多数"扭曲曲线"情景都不包括气候变化影响.
- 扭转生物多样性丧失需要在自然保护,可持续食品系统,饮食转变和废物减少方面采取综合努力.
结论:
- 目前的情景可能低估了扭转生物多样性丧失的复杂性.
- 未来的政策支持场景需要模型相互比较和标准化指标来进行可靠的比较.
- 场景必须考虑更广泛的生物多样性驱动因素,并提出更雄心勃勃的跨部门行动.
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