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开放和内镜手腕道释放的趋势:医疗保险预测到2040年
Paul G Mastrokostas1,2, Mohamed Said1, Alejandro J Friedman1
1SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY, USA.
概括
手腕道释放 (CTR) 手术的数量正在上升,内镜CTR增长最快. 然而,预计到2040年,开放式CTR仍将是最常见的程序.
科学领域:
- 整形外科手术 整形外科手术
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 医学经济学 医学经济学
背景情况:
- 带道释放 (CTR) 是一种常见的手术,采用公开和内镜方法.
- 本研究检查了2000-2022年的美国医疗保险数据,以分析历史CTR利用趋势.
- 预计CTR的未来程序量将持续到2040年.
研究的目的:
- 分析医疗保险受益人中手道释放 (CTR) 使用的美国历史趋势.
- 预测到2040年,对开放式和内镜CTR的未来程序量进行预测.
主要方法:
- 使用的医疗保险B部分国家总结数据 (2000-2022) 开放式 (CPT 64721) 和内镜 (CPT 29848) CTR体积估计.
- 调整为不断增长的医疗保险优势入学人数.
- 应用并比较了四种预测模型 (日志线性,Poisson,负二项式,ARIMA),选择ARIMA以基于MAE和RMSE的卓越预测准确度.
主要成果:
- 在2000年至2022年期间,开放式CTR的数量增加了180%,而内镜CTR的数量增加了959%.
- 预计ARIMA预测将继续增长:公开CTR年率为2.0%,到2040年将达到约424,271次手续.
- 预计内镜CTR将以每年2.42%的速度增长,到2040年达到约184,723次手术,尽管开放式CTR预计将继续占主导地位.
结论:
- 带道释放利用率在美国显著增加,内镜技术显示出更高的增长率.
- 尽管内镜方法的增长速度更快,但预计开放式CTR仍然是最频繁的手术.
- 建议进行进一步的研究,以评估CTR技术的经济影响,患者结果和采用因素.
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