长江经济带的时空空间耕地动态和可持续途径
Min Wang1,2, Shougeng Hu3,4, Mirjana Sakradzija5
1School of Future Technology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, PR China.
Scientific reports
|February 7, 2026
概括
长江经济带 (YREB) 的耕地变化显示了转化为建成土地的趋势,但流入和流出仍保持平衡. 可持续的耕地管理需要量身定制的政策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
- 土地利用科学 土地利用科学
背景情况:
- 在大规模的流域经济带内,农田动态的区域变异性未得到充分研究.
- 耕地变化对于粮食安全,社会经济发展和生态保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析长江经济带 (YREB) 的耕地变化模式和稳定性.
- 确定耕地变化的关键驱动因素.
- 预测未来的耕地变化,并提出可持续使用场景.
主要方法:
- 土地使用变化强度测绘.
- 驱动因素的统计分析.
- 未来耕地变化预测的FLUS模型.
主要成果:
- 观察到农田系统地转化为建筑用地.
- 尽管整体下降,农田的流入和流出的平衡.
- 农田重心向南部山区和北部平原地区转移.
- 交通网络和气候是主要的驱动因素,区域差异很大.
- 农田保护场景 (CPS) 与可持续途径 (SPP1) 目标保持一致.
结论:
- 耕地动态的区域变化需要定制的政策干预.
- 城市扩张和生态竞争对农业用地构成挑战.
- 提供了有效的农田管理和规划在YREB的科学基础.
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