使用福里埃序列分解与LSTM和SVM结合使用颗粒物 (PM2.5和PM10) 预测
Mohamed Bennis1, Mohamed Youssfi2, Rachida El Morabet3
1ENSET Mohammedia, 2IACS laboratory, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco. mohamedbennis420@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|February 7, 2026
概括
准确预测颗粒物 (PM10和PM2.5) 对公共卫生至关重要. 这项研究将富里埃分解与机器学习 (LSTM和SVM) 结合起来,有效预测空气污染水平,帮助决策决策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 由人口增长和工业活动驱动的空气污染对全球可持续发展产生了重大影响.
- 运输和其他来源的燃烧排放是空气污染的主要原因.
- 准确预测PM10和PM2.5对于减轻不良健康影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估先进的机器学习模型,用于预测每小时的PM10和PM2.5度.
- 评估将富里埃序列分解与支持矢量机 (SVM) 和长短期内存 (LSTM) 算法相结合的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自摩洛哥穆罕默迪亚 (2020年12月 - 2021年11月) 的每小时PM10和PM2.5数据.
- 与支持矢量机 (SVMF) 和长短期存储器 (LSTMF) 模型相结合,使用了富里埃序列分解.
- 使用根平均平方误差 (RMSE),平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和R平方 (R2) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 组合模型 (SVMF,LSTMF) 在PM预测方面表现优于独立的SVM和LSTM模型.
- 该LSTMF模型表现出卓越的性能,特别是在秋季的每小时PM2.5预测和秋季和春季的PM10预测.
- 长期预测 (提前七天) 显示出高准确度,LSTMF实现了PM2.5的R2值高达0.96和PM10的0.92.
结论:
- 综合的里埃分解和LSTMF方法提供了一个可靠的方法,用于准确的每小时和短期空气污染预测.
- 早期识别颗粒物物质模式使得及时的政策干预和缓解策略成为可能.
- 这种预测能力支持决策者主动应对空气质量挑战,特别是在污染高峰时段.
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