气候变化对中下长江流域保护区有效性的影响:适应性管理的影响
Shili Zhang1, Qiyao Han1, Shuyan Liu1
1Department of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Agricultural University, China.
Journal of environmental management
|February 8, 2026
概括
由于气候变化对物种的影响,保护区 (PA) 的有效性正在下降. 适应性战略和PA扩张对于未来的生物多样性保护至关重要.
科学领域:
- 保护科学 保护科学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
背景情况:
- 保护区对于生物多样性保护至关重要,但日益受到气候变化的威胁.
- 现有的PA研究往往忽视了气候变化对物种分布和PA有效性的影响.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候变化场景下评估保护区 (PAs) 的有效性.
- 评估气候变化如何影响长江流域物种分布和PA表现.
- 制定指标,以全面评估PA的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用物种分布模型 (SDM) 在未来气候情景下预测物种范围的变化.
- 在生物多样性,息地状况和气候连接方面开发了五个指标.
- 评估了在长江流域中部和下游的PA有效性.
主要成果:
- 保护区的有效性随着时间的推移而下降,特别是在高排放场景下.
- 减少物种丰富性,息地适宜性和气候连接性推动了这种下降.
- 目前的50-70%的保护差距可能会失去关键价值,同时出现新的差距,突出显示PA网络的不足.
结论:
- 目前的PA网络不足以应对气候变化挑战.
- 整合气候适应能力的适应性管理策略对于PA的长期可行性至关重要.
- 为了有效适应气候变化和保护生物多样性,迫切需要扩大PA.
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