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利用政府颁发的许可证,对菲律宾2021年猪肉贸易活动的空间和时间网络分析
Toni Rose M Barroga1, Michael W Sanderson2, Helene Avocat3
1Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Animal Industry, Quezon City, Philippines; Master of Public Health Program, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA.
Research in veterinary science
|February 8, 2026
概括
动物流动数据显示,关键的猪贸易中心容易受到疾病传播的影响. 了解这些模式对于通过有针对性的监测控制非洲猪瘟至关重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 动物健康管理 动物健康管理
背景情况:
- 动物的移动是传染病传播的重要因素.
- 社交网络分析为理解动物移动数据 (AMD) 提供了一个框架.
- 识别贸易网络中的关键节点对于疾病控制战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析菲律宾使用当地航运许可证 (LSP) 的猪肉贸易模式.
- 为了确定脆弱的城镇和动物流动的季节性趋势.
- 通过基于风险的监测,为非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 控制战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年菲律宾AMD平台的猪本地运输许可证 (LSP).
- 应用社会网络分析,以城市为节点,运输为弧线.
- 使用R (图形包) 和ArcGISPro进行网络分析和可视化.
- 使用Walktrap算法来识别贸易社区.
主要成果:
- 绘制了一个由685个城镇组成的网络,有37,138个运输涉及超过210万头猪.
- 确定了货运的季节性变化,在10月至12月达到峰值,在1月至3月达到最低.
- 检测到六个主要的贸易社区,并发现育种/肥料农场具有高的外度,而城市/屠宰场具有高的内度.
- 网络指标显示,集群结构薄弱,贸易关系主要是单方面的.
结论:
- 猪贸易模式表现出与文化习惯相关的季节性变化.
- 交通繁忙的城市和贸易路线对于疾病传播至关重要,特别是ASF.
- 网络分析为有效的疾病控制,监测和资源分配提供了必要的见解.
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