[基于PLUS-INVEST-地质探测器模型的太湖周围城市聚集地土地利用和碳库存评估的多场景模拟]
Jing-Jing Zhao1, Song Zhou2, Yan-Xiang Ge2
1School of Urban Governance and Public Affairs, Suzhou City University, Suzhou 215104, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|February 9, 2026
概括
太湖地区的土地利用变化在2000年至2020年期间显著减少了碳库存. 2030年的生态保护情景显示,由于自然因素,碳储量可能会增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市聚集地在平衡发展与生态系统健康方面面临着挑战.
- 太湖地区的土地利用演变影响了碳池和低碳发展目标.
研究的目的:
- 分析时空土地利用和碳库存动态 (2000-2020年).
- 根据2030年不同的发展情景,预测土地使用和碳库存.
- 确定碳库存变化的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了PLUS-INVEST-地质探测器模型进行分析.
- 检查了土地使用模式和二十年的碳库存变化.
- 模拟的未来情景 (自然,城市,生态保护) 到2030年.
主要成果:
- 耕地减少了26.3%,建筑用地增加了147.5% (2000-2020年).
- 总体碳储量减少了8.17%,农田和森林土地的损失很大.
- 生态保护场景预计2030年碳储量更高 (469.865万).
结论:
- 土地使用转变是碳库存下降的主要驱动因素.
- 自然环境因素对碳库存的影响要大于社会经济因素.
- 生态保护战略对于提高太湖地区的碳库存至关重要.
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