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[在长江流域江苏部分的生态系统碳储存的多场景模拟和空间优化]
Zhuo-Yue Peng1,2,3, Meng-Ting Li1, Yu-Bin Liang1
1College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|February 9, 2026
概括
在长江流域优化生态系统碳储存至关重要. 2030年的生态保护场景显示,与其他场景不同,碳储量增加,指导可持续的土地利用实现"双碳"目标.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 生态系统碳储存的优化对于区域碳平衡和沉积能力至关重要.
- 土地使用变化对碳储存模式产生重大影响.
- 长江河流域的江苏部分在保持碳平衡方面面临着挑战.
研究的目的:
- 分析长江河流域江苏部分碳储存的时间和空间演变.
- 预测不同发展场景下的未来碳储存趋势.
- 优化碳储存的空间模式,以实现可持续的土地利用和实现双碳目标.
主要方法:
- 利用InVEST和PLUS模型来预测碳储存和空间分布.
- 采用贝叶斯网络模型进行决策优化和空间模式优化.
- 分析了2000年至2020年的碳储存变化,并预测了2030年的趋势.
主要成果:
- 2000年至2020年期间,碳储量减少了4,797.63×10^4,主要是由于土地转型.
- 2030年的生态保护情景预测碳储量增加 (38,528.91×10^4),而其他情景显示减少.
- 贝叶斯网络模型确定了关键变量,并将该区域划分为四个最佳区域:生态保护,耕地保护,水资源保护和经济建设.
结论:
- 土地利用规划对未来的碳储存趋势产生重大影响.
- 生态保护战略是增强该地区碳汇的最有效方法.
- 优化的空间区划为可持续的土地管理和实现"双碳"目标提供了框架.
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