[基于SD-PLUS-INVEST模型的江西省土地使用和息地质量变化和模拟]
Li-Xia Dou1,2, Li-Ting Xu1,2, Wen-Zi-Yi Li1,2
1School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|February 9, 2026
概括
江西省的土地利用变化显示出放缓的趋势,息地质量下降. 未来的情景预测继续扩大建筑用地,影响生态平衡,并要求为可持续发展制定战略性土地利用规划.
科学领域:
- 生态文明建设 生态文明建设
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化对区域息地质量和生态平衡产生重大影响.
- 江西省是一个国家生态文明试点区,面临着复杂的土地使用动态.
- 了解这些动态对于可持续发展和生态治理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析江西省2000年至2020年的土地利用变化特征.
- 在不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景 (SSP119,SSP245,SSP585) 下模拟未来的土地使用模式,用于2040年和2060年.
- 用生态模型评估由此产生的息地质量变化.
主要方法:
- 对2000年,2010年和2020年土地使用数据的分析.
- 在CMIP6场景下使用SD-PLUS模型模拟未来的土地使用模式.
- 使用InVEST模型评估息地质量变化.
主要成果:
- 与2000-2010年相比,江西的土地利用变化在2010-2020年间放缓,其中关键的转变涉及耕地和森林土地,以及建筑用地的扩张.
- 从2000年到2020年,平均息地质量下降了3.57%,质量差集中在城市地区和交通走廊沿线.
- 未来的场景项目减少了耕地和扩大了建筑用地;SSP119显示出由于增加了森林土地而具有最好的息地质量,而SSP585显示出由于建筑扩张而具有最差的息地质量.
结论:
- 息地质量的改善与增加的森林和稀疏的森林土地有关.
- 扩大建筑用地和将森林转化为耕地降低了息地质量.
- 这些发现为江西省的生态治理和可持续土地利用规划提供了科学基础.
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