极端灾害风险的跨组织协作治理:新兴技术的适应机制和配置途径
Changqi Dong1, Jianing Mi1, Jida Liu1
1School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China.
概括
新兴技术改变了对极端灾害风险的跨组织治理. 数据的准确性和组织间的联系是关键,积极的政策增强了系统应对复杂挑战的弹性.
科学领域:
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
- 复杂的自适应系统
- 社会技术系统 社会技术系统
背景情况:
- 对极端灾害风险的跨组织治理是一个关键的社会挑战.
- 了解新兴技术在协作灾害风险治理中的作用至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个综合的理论框架来分析新兴技术如何改变对极端灾害风险的协作治理.
- 通过混合方法方法识别和验证提高系统弹性的关键技术-组织配置.
主要方法:
- 方法三角化结合了定性比较分析 (QCA),机器学习 (XGBoost与SHAP) 和基于代理的建模系统动态 (ABM-SD).
- 分析中国的灾难案例,最初有12个QCA的代表案例,扩展到120个机器学习验证的案例.
- 基于代理的建模-系统动态模拟以测试政策干预和网络结构.
主要成果:
- QCA确定了数据分析精度和组织间联系是高性能协作治理的基础,揭示了三个不同的配置路径.
- 机器学习验证证实了配置稳定性,并揭示了从网络主导到数据驱动模式的时间演变.
- ABM-SD模拟显示,循环技术升级的积极政策提高了弹性,而松散合的异质网络可以防止复杂性陷.
结论:
- 在灾害治理中建立了技术与组织互动的系统框架.
- 确定了对极端灾害风险的有效协作治理的最终途径.
- 开发了技术赋权和组织合作之间的动态相互作用的理论模型,用于系统的出现和重建.
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