考克斯速率和状态模型用于监测格罗宁根天然气田的地震危险
Z Baki1, M N M van Lieshout2,3
1Credit Risk Management of Digital Products, Halyk Bank JSC, Al-Farabi 40, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
概括
这项研究通过完善速度和状态模型来考虑噪音孔隙压力数据和气体生产,从而增强格罗宁根天然气田的地震危险监测. 改进的模型提供了更准确的预测诱导的地震活动.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 石油工程是石油工程中的一个.
背景情况:
- 对于格罗宁根天然气田来说,地震危险监测至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全考虑测量噪音和气体生产的影响.
研究的目的:
- 修改速度和状态模型以改善地震危险监测.
- 为了将噪声纳入孔隙压力测量和气体生产量.
主要方法:
- 考克斯过程中第一和第二时刻结构的分析.
- 开发一个不偏见的估计方程方法,用于参数估计.
- 导出驾驶随机测量的条件分布.
- 使用一个平行的大都会调整的朗格温算法进行采样和危险监测.
主要成果:
- 修改后的速度和状态模型为地震危险评估提供了更强大的框架.
- 提出的方法允许准确的参数估计,尽管有噪音数据.
- 该算法可以有效监测诱导的地震危险.
结论:
- 改进后的模型为生产场的地震危险监测提供了显著的改进.
- 这种方法对于确保安全和管理与天然气开采相关的风险至关重要.
- 该方法的进一步应用可以在类似的地质环境中提高运营安全.
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