气候变化导致全球放牧系统的衰退
Chaohui Li1,2, Maximilian Kotz1,3, Prajal Pradhan1,4
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam D-14412, Germany.
概括
到2100年,气候变化将大大降低全球放牧适用性,影响数百万牧民和牲畜. 这威胁着生计,特别是在脆弱地区,突出了可持续放牧系统的紧急适应需求.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 牧场系统是广泛的全球生产系统,对气候变化高度敏感.
- 了解全球范围内的牧场系统对气候影响的敏感性和脆弱性至关重要,但仍然不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化将如何利用安全气候空间框架重塑全球草原牧场系统.
- 评估不断变化的气候驱动因素 (温度,降水,湿度,风速) 对牧场适宜性的影响.
主要方法:
- 应用安全气候空间框架来分析全球放牧适宜性.
- 预测到2100年气候驱动因素的变化及其对牧场的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,气候适合放牧的净下降率将在36%至50%之间.
- 预计在牧场适合性方面会有显著的洲际和洲内转移.
- 对1.1亿1.4亿牧民和14亿16亿牲畜造成负面影响,对非洲造成严重后果.
结论:
- 未来的气候变化对全球牧场适宜性构成重大威胁.
- 许多社区的生计受到威胁,可能会造成广泛的社会经济后果.
- 低收入,粮食不安全和政治脆弱国家的弱势群体受到了不成比例的影响,需要有针对性的适应战略.
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