人类对控制措施的坚持程度对囊性球菌传播的影响
1College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China.
Mathematical biosciences
|February 9, 2026
概括
人类的坚持显著影响囊性赤球菌 (CE) 传播动态. 即使在低传播率 (R0<1) 的情况下,降低的坚持也可能导致疾病复发,突出显示在控制策略中需要考虑人类行为的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 囊性球菌病 (CE) 是一种影响人类和牲畜健康的重大动物性疾病.
- 有效的CE控制在很大程度上依赖于人类遵守预防措施.
- 现有的模型往往忽略了疾病传播和人类行为之间的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种游戏理论流行病学模型,将人类行为反应与CE传播相结合.
- 调查人类坚持对CE患病率和控制有效性的影响.
- 确定人类坚持疾病的关键值,以防止疾病复发.
主要方法:
- 开发一种游戏理论流行病学模型,将疾病传播与人类行为动态联系起来.
- 模型平衡和值动态的导出.
- 数字模拟来分析关键因素对疾病流行和坚持的影响.
主要成果:
- 人类的坚持直接影响CE传播风险和感染水平.
- 遵守更高的成本与风险比率降低了合规性,降低了控制结果.
- 在新疆省的模型应用表明一个关键的坚持值 (0.5706),在此以下的CE复发是可能的,尽管R0<1.
结论:
- 人类行为是囊性赤道球菌病的长期动态的一个关键因素.
- 仅仅依靠基本的复制数 (R0) 是不够的预测CE传输,当人类的行为被考虑.
- 持续的CE控制需要保持人类的坚持度超过关键值.
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