使用企业级供应链网络来衡量能源转型的速度
Johannes Stangl1, András Borsos1,2,3, Stefan Thurner4,5,6,7
1Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria.
Nature communications
|February 9, 2026
概括
监测能源转型对于气候目标至关重要. 这项研究揭示了低碳能源采用在企业层面的显著差异,许多企业落后,阻碍了实现气候目标的进展.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 国际气候目标需要成功的能源转型.
- 对经济采用低碳能源的系统监测尚不发达.
- 企业层面的能源转型进展在很大程度上仍未得到量化.
研究的目的:
- 重建和分析匈牙利企业级能源投资组合.
- 在企业层面量化能源转型的速度和异质性.
- 评估采用前沿战略对实现气候目标的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了25000家匈牙利企业 (2020-2024) 全国供应链网络数据.
- 重建了企业级能源投资组合,涵盖了大量的天然气,电力和石油消费.
- 分析了能源成本结构及其与过渡行为的关联.
主要成果:
- 观察到实质性的异质性:50%的企业增加了低碳能源份额,而50%则减少了.
- 能源成本结构与过渡行为密切相关,这表明技术锁定效应.
- 目前的趋势预计到2050年,低碳的总份额仅为20%,这表明无效的脱碳.
结论:
- 目前企业层面的脱碳努力在实现气候目标方面基本无效.
- 在行业部门内采用前沿战略可以显著加速能源转型.
- 到2050年实现70%的低碳份额是可行的,通过模仿领先的公司,将气候目标置于可实现的范围内.
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