在社区居住的老年人中,残疾风险预测模型:系统审查
Zhilin Zhang1,2, Qiuyi Wang1,2, Yijia Li1,2
1Department of Nursing, Naval Medical University, 800 Xiangyin Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, 200433, China.
BMC geriatrics
|February 9, 2026
概括
预测老年人的残疾风险至关重要. 目前的模型看起来很有前途,但有方法上的缺陷和偏见,需要改进报告和验证,以便在实践中使用.
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 生物统计学和流行病学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 在社区居住的老年人中早期发现残疾风险是公共卫生的优先事项.
- 许多研究已经为这一群体开发了预测模型.
- 这些模型的质量,偏差和适用性尚未得到充分理解.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和批判性地评估现有的残疾风险预测模型,用于社区居住的老年人.
主要方法:
- 在 2025 年 2 月 28 日之前搜索了多个数据库 (PubMed,CINAHL,Cochrane,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,VIP,Wanfang).
- 两位审稿人使用批判性评估的检查清单和预测建模研究 (CHARMS) 系统审查的数据提取提取数据.
- 使用与人工智能 (PROBAST+AI) 集成的预测模型偏差风险评估工具评估方法质量,偏差风险和适用性.
主要成果:
- 包括19个预测模型的19项研究;所有评估的歧视 (AUC/c指数0.620-0.853发展,0.650-0.804验证).
- 常见的预测因素:年龄,身体功能,认知功能,心血管疾病,性别.
- PROBAST+AI揭示了开发过程中存在的高质量问题 (18个模型),评估过程中存在偏差的高风险 (16个模型),以及应用性问题 (15个模型).
结论:
- 针对老年人的残疾风险模型具有良好的歧视能力,但具有显著的方法限制和高偏差.
- 未来的研究必须遵守报告标准,用于开发和评估风险预测模型.
- 在实践中进一步验证临床适用性是必不可少的.
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