从危机到部分恢复:在肺炎疫情爆发后,阿尔卑斯山雌性山羊的人口变化
Lionel Bonsacquet1,2, Aurélien Besnard2, Jérôme Cavailhes1
1Parc National de la Vanoise, Chambéry, France.
The Journal of animal ecology
|February 10, 2026
概括
一个阿尔卑斯山伊贝克斯种群经历了严重的肺炎爆发,导致繁殖概率增加,但生殖后生存率下降. 长期监测揭示了复杂的生存-繁殖权衡,以应对疾病和环境变化.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 野生动物疾病 野生动物疾病
背景情况:
- 病原动物对种群动态有重大影响,影响了生存和繁殖.
- 疾病爆发的长期人口影响和潜在机制尚不清楚.
- 阿尔卑斯山山羊群面临疾病和环境变化带来的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 在严重的肺炎爆发后,调查高山山羊的长期人口结构模式.
- 为了比较雌性人口参数 (繁殖概率,存活率,人口增长) 在动物瘟疫之前,期间和之后.
- 了解在应对病原体暴露和环境变化时的生存-繁殖权衡.
主要方法:
- 利用综合种群模型,将捕获-标记-重新捕获和人口普查数据结合起来,用于雌性阿尔卑斯山羊.
- 在流行病前10年,流行病期间2年和流行病后14年分析人口参数.
- 考虑到个体在繁殖概率和生存的异质性.
主要成果:
- 病后,繁殖概率显著增加,特别是在低质量的雌性中.
- 初代的年龄下降了,生殖模式在高质量和低质量雌性之间发生了转变.
- 成年女性的生存率在疫情爆发后下降,尽管繁殖增加,但阻碍了人口的恢复.
- 人口增长缓慢 (+2.4%-1年),主要由高素质的女性推动.
结论:
- 疾病爆发可能会导致人口统计策略的持久变化,有利于生殖而不是生存.
- 持续的病原体和环境变化可能会阻碍人口的恢复.
- 长期研究对于了解野生动物对新出现的传染病和气候变化的反应至关重要.
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