在COVID-19期间模拟恐慌购买行为的时空进化过程:中国的一个案例研究
Peihua Fu1, Manying Li1, Tinggui Chen2
1School of Management and E-Business, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|February 10, 2026
概括
公共紧急情况可能会引发恐慌购买,但过去的经历可能会减少恐惧. 观察到购买行为的空间聚类,控制的干预措施可以减轻恐慌购买的传播.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 复杂的系统复杂的系统.
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 在公共紧急情况下的恐慌购买会对社会稳定和经济发展产生负面影响.
- 恐慌情绪在时间和空间中迅速传播,加剧了购买行为.
- 了解恐慌购买的驱动因素和演变对于缓解至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究团队恐慌购买行为的时空演变.
- 分析信息刺激和先前经验对恐慌购买的影响.
- 探索空间控制策略在缓解恐慌购买方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用刺激-有机体-反应 (SOR) 框架来建模恐慌购买.
- 用马尔科夫链和细胞自动机适应传染病模型进行时空分析.
- 在城市社区环境中模拟恐慌购买动态.
主要成果:
- 信息强度显著刺激了恐慌购买;以前的恐慌购买经验减轻了它.
- 恐慌购买的参与者和非参与者表现出空间聚类,中心个体开始购买,边缘个体停止购买.
- 在购买区域内的分区控制有效地减少了恐慌购买的传播,并加速了恐慌购买的下降.
结论:
- 恐慌购买行为受到信息,过去的经验和空间因素的影响.
- 空间集群和集群中的个人位置会影响购买参与和停止.
- 干预策略,如分区控制在紧急情况下有效地管理恐慌购买.
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