解开丰富的发生:模拟一个临灭绝的动物种群,捕获概率低的捕获概率
Abby E Bratt1, Cheryl S Brehme2, Robert N Fisher2
1Proteus Research and Consulting Ltd, Outram, New Zealand.
概括
这项研究开发了一种新的方法,利用占用数据来预测危物种的数量,即使捕获率低. 该方法整合了轨道管和捕获-重新捕获数据,以获得更准确的人口估计.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 野生动物管理 野生动物管理
背景情况:
- 估计危物种的丰富性至关重要,但由于数据收集成本而具有挑战性.
- 基于占用率的方法是对罕见物种传统丰度估计的经济有效的替代方案.
- 目前很少有方法可以从占用数据直接预测丰富度,特别是对于捕获概率低的物种.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的方法方法,用于从占用数据中预测人口丰度.
- 为了弥合物种发生率和物种丰度之间的差距,捕获概率低的物种.
- 将该方法应用于南加利福尼亚的太平洋口袋老鼠 (Perognathus longimembris pacificus; PPM).
主要方法:
- 利用PPM监测中的配对捕获-重新捕获和存在-缺席数据 (2012-2022年).
- 使用集成贝叶斯分析估计密度,占用和检测.
- 模拟密度作为占用和检测的函数,以预测月度和年度规模的丰富性.
主要成果:
- 占用和检测与密度正相关,并预测密度.
- 该模型解释了密度变化的很大一部分,但仍然存在无法解释的变化.
- 在PPM亚群中,在月度和年度尺度上成功预测了丰富度,并考虑了不确定性.
结论:
- 开发的方法有效地从占用数据预测了种群丰度,即使对捕获概率低的物种也是如此.
- 这种方法为危物种管理提供了有价值的工具,在这种情况下,直接估计密度是困难的.
- 在占用计划中整合密度监测可以增强难以捉摸的物种的保护策略.
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