精英女子足球进攻转型的关键绩效指标:一种机器学习和可解释性方法
Claudio A Casal1, José Luis Losada2, Ana M de Benito Trigueros3
1Faculty of Physical Education & Sport Sciences, Catholic University of Valencia, San Vicente Mártir, Valencia, Spain.
Biology of sport
|February 11, 2026
概括
精英女子足球在进攻过渡中的成功取决于执行和背景. 关键预测因素包括穿透传球,反击和对手的防守定位,这些都是使用机器学习识别的.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 足球分析 足球分析
- 绩效分析 绩效分析
背景情况:
- 女子足球的兴趣越来越大,但缺乏深入的技术战术性能研究.
- 了解进攻动态过渡对于精英女子足球战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 识别和量化技术-战术指标影响进攻动态过渡效率在精英女子足球.
- 应用机器学习来预测过渡结果和分析预测因素的影响.
主要方法:
- 观察方法分析了来自主要女子足球锦标赛的3610次进攻过渡.
- 开发"Transfootb"仪器,用于记录进攻行为,防守反应和比赛背景.
- 应用千平方测试和随机森林建模,使用ShAP值进行解释.
主要成果:
- 机器学习模型的AUC为0.78,回忆率为18%,特异性为96%.
- 过渡的执行方式和比赛背景显著影响进攻的成功.
- 确定了关键预测因素:穿透传球 (≥ 3),反击和对手的低防守位置.
结论:
- 科学证据支持优化战略决策在精英女子足球的动态进攻过渡.
- 突出了机器学习在分析和预测体育特定绩效行动方面的潜力.
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